The agency pointed out thatUnbeatablebanzukeAt present, the coal sector has the attributes of high performance, high cash, high dividend, high prosperity, long cycle and high barriers in the superimposed industry, as well as the undervaluation level and the first-and second-tier valuation upside down, the coal sector is both offensive and defensive. Continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way, and continue to suggest that we should pay attention to the historic opportunity of coal allocation.

Core logic

oneUnbeatablebanzuke. The area at the bottom of coal prices has been identified and is bullish on the rising market in late May. At present, the supply of the origin is stable and tight, and the freight volume of the Tang Railway Line has been improved after the arrival of the freight preferential policy of the Railway Bureau, which partly hedges the effect of Daqin line maintenance on port inventory, but spot resources are still in short supply. On the demand side, the demand for thermal coal is currently off-season, and the non-electricity demand has improved slightly compared with the previous year. It is expected that there is no basis for a big rise in short-term coal prices. After late May, electricity demand will gradually release coal prices or enter the fast uplink channel. In terms of the sector, with the release of the company's annual report and quarterly results one after another, the high stability of coal companies' profits and high dividends have been highlighted again, and the market has become more hot.

two。 With the resumption of downstream production, especially the resumption of suspended infrastructure projects, non-electricity demand is expected to gradually improve, domestic coal supply shrinks under the continuous constraints of superimposed safety regulation (from January to March 2024, national raw coal production fell 4.1% year-on-year) and imported coal reduction caused by sustained high overseas coal prices, especially the shortage of spot volume and inventory is not obvious and even coking coal inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period. Short-term coal prices are expected to stabilize or show a small shock, but once the marginal demand improves, prices have greater upward elasticity, coking coal prices may take the lead to rebound.

3. The supply at both ends of coal supply and demand is the most critical, the supply is inelastic and the demand is elastic, the main contradiction is whether the demand can realize the obvious recovery. At present, to look at the normal fluctuations of coal prices in the off-peak season objectively, we do not need to pay too much attention to the short-term price correction, but should pay more attention to that the price center is still at a relatively high level throughout the year, which determines that high-quality coal enterprises are still expected to maintain a high level of ROE. On the whole, under the background of large energy inflation, the tight pattern of coal supply and demand in the next 3-5 years has not changed, high-quality coal enterprises still have the attributes of high barriers, high cash, high dividends and high dividends, superimposed coal prices bottom to promote plate valuation reshaping, plate investment is both offensive and defensive and cost-effective, short-term plate correction has highlighted a higher investment value, it is once again suggested to focus on seizing the opportunity of coal allocation at this stage.

4. In the process of energy transformation, it is necessary to protect the smooth operation of the energy system, safe and stable and low-cost coal power is undoubtedly a better choice. In the medium to long term, the dominant position of thermal power generation in the field of power generation will not change, but in extreme cases, it will further strengthen the significant increase in newly installed thermal power units during the 14th five-year Plan period, and thermal power production still shows a growing momentum. At the same time, oil prices remain at medium-to-high levels, the construction and production enthusiasm of coal chemical projects have increased, and coal demand may continue to rise in the next few years. However, the procedures for mining coal mines are complex, the construction and production cycle is long, the cost of new mines has risen sharply, the willingness of mainstream coal enterprises to build new mines is still very weak, and the industry has basically reached a high load state in terms of production capacity. After the nuclear increase in production capacity in the past two years, the space for nuclear increase has been greatly reduced, the resource-exhausted mines in the east and other areas have been continuously withdrawn, and the ability of industry supply constraints remains unchanged. It is expected that in the next few years, the coal industry will still maintain a tight balance, with high asset quality and abundant cash flow on the account. listed coal companies show five high characteristics of "high profit, high cash flow, high barrier, high dividend and high margin of safety". It is suggested to play down the short-term fluctuation of coal price, grasp the value attribute of coal plate, and maintain the "recommended" rating of the industry.

Be good for individual stocks

Minsheng Securities pointed out that in terms of the target, the following investment lines are recommended: 1) the performance of the leading companies in the industry is sound, and it is recommended to pay attention to China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225) and China Coal Energy. 2) strong α attribute company, it is suggested to pay attention to Jinjiao coal industry and Xinji Energy (601918). 3) the allocation value of companies with high dividend yield is prominent, so it is recommended to pay attention to Huayang shares and Orchid Kechuang (600123). 4) the price center of coal is moved up to the target of high elasticity, so it is suggested to pay attention to Lu'an Huaneng (601699), Shan Coal International (600546) and Yanzhou Mining Energy. 5) for the target of scarce coking coal, it is recommended to pay attention to Hengyuan Coal Power (600971), Huaibei Mining (600985), Pingshan Coal (601666) and Shanxi Coking Coal.

Cinda Securities believes that from the bottom up, focus on: first, Yanzhou Mining Energy, Guanghui Energy (600256), Shaanxi Coal Industry, Mountain Coal International, Shanxi Coal Industry, etc.; second, promoted by the central reform policy, the central coal enterprises with large room for asset value revaluation, Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Xinji Energy, etc. Third, the global resource special scarcity of high-quality metallurgical coal company Ping Coal shares, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Huaneng, Panjiang shares (600395); fourth, it is suggested to pay attention to the metallurgical injection of anthracite related target orchid Kechuang, Huayang shares, as well as the new round of production cycle in the field of coal production and construction opportunities, such as Tiandi Science and Technology (600582), Tianma Intelligence Control, etc.